The results show that the proposed method is practical and provides a way to estimate the risks in real-time flood control operation of a complex flood control system. We apply the proposed methodology to a flood control system in the middle reaches of the Huaihe River basin in China. We evaluate the propagation of uncertainties through the complex flood control system and calculate the risk of reservoir overtopping, as well as the risk of flooding at selected downstream control points. We conduct risk analysis for each subsystem and then integrate the results by means of combination theory of stochastic processes. In this paper, we propose a decomposition-integration approach whereby the original complex flood control system is decomposed into a number of independent subsystems. Because of the dimensionality problem, generally, it would not be possible to carry out risk analysis without decomposition. Additionally, the input variables are mostly stochastic. The system generally is characterized by nonlinearity and large scale. A typical flood control system consists of reservoirs, river channels, and downstream control points. Risk analysis plays an important role in decision making for real-time flood control operation of complex flood control systems.
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